Trust yourself

c/o Medium

Artificial Intelligence (AI) lacks business acumen, it cannot delve into a business and apply nuance, experience, or patterns learned from other contexts. Back in the days when I used to sell clothes and accessories, I visited various businesses and noticed that many of them faced similar problems, despite different contexts. I think by observing these patterns, I can now have meaningful conversations with leaders and senior executives about their businesses. While AI can analyse data and provide information, it cannot interpret it in a way that human beings can understand, because it cannot grasp the context of what is truly happening in a business. What do you think?

---

A wonderful checklist

I think that there are limitations in the current metrics when capturing certain human values and experiences as the below five things we don’t have metrics for, and humans really care about:

• Status

• Certainly

• Autonomy

• Relatedness

• Fairness

Each of these elements can have a different impact depending on the context. They all hold significant importance in human lives and don’t feature in traditional economic models or market research. Which ones do you think are a threat, and which ones will you reward?
I think by understanding and incorporating these dimensions into assessments and policies could be crucial for creating more holistic models that reflect human experiences more accurately.

---

Aligning value creation

It’s common knowledge that understanding the "why" behind consumer behaviour is crucial for businesses to make informed decisions. Creating value in the mind of the customer requires understanding their wants and needs. Data can provide valuable information about consumer preferences, buying behaviour, and market trends, enabling businesses to develop products or services that align with customer demands. I think by delivering what customers truly desire, businesses can increase the chances of creating value that resonates with their target audience.

---

Do you value experience?

Information and insight are not interchangeable, even though anyone can easily access information through platforms like Google or ChatGPT. It's possible to gather information, but information alone does not equate to insight or wisdom. I think information does not possess the same value as what we refer to as situational knowledge. Situational knowledge stems from experience, enabling individuals to determine what’s good, right, and true, as well as what’s suitable for specific circumstances.

---

Don't glorify the past

Image c/o The New York Times

The concept of 'the data will tell you what to do' is an appealing notion to many individuals. We all know the old adage, “Nobody ever got fired for choosing IBM”, as the IBM products and services was the safe and conservative choice for companies and organisations. Making decisions based solely on objective information without subjective judgment or imagination may shield one from blame or potential consequences if things go wrong. All big data comes from the same place - the past! Therefore, if you rely excessively on historical data this can lead to dangerous future for yourself. Although this approach may work in the short term when tomorrow resembles yesterday, it becomes highly risky in the long term, especially when significant disruptions occur.

---

Use numbers for support

Nobody questions you when you use numbers and data to back things up. In the business world, if you present any information in numerical form everyone will nod along and it usually is verified. For example, during a sales presentation, when you showcase statistics highlighting the market share your product has gained, the audience becomes more receptive and inclined to believe in the success of your offering. The data-driven approach helps to instills confidence and encourages potential clients to make purchasing decisions.

---

Behavioural data is valuable

Do you know your customer?
I think that there is a huge value in understanding behavioural data and the importance of understanding the “why” behind people’s actions. Behavioural data has more value when it proves that people bought your goods or services, rather than when it tells you what people intend to do. Data provides the “what,” but doesn’t provide the “why”. Data will tell you a story and the story it tells depends on the interpretation and the interpretation probably depends on something psychological. You can create value in the mind as value is only meaningful to the extent that it’s perceived, because if people don’t want what you have made then you haven’t created any value at all.

---

Strategic insights into audiences

Many organisations are awash with data but do not know what to do with it. I hear from many business leaders that leading consultancies are guilty of not giving clear, concise advice for some reason. The business leaders bring in consultants and they will give a really good blueprint, but what they need is clear actionable advice that they can use immediately.

I take a more holistic view of research, after studying the Law of Large Numbers, I know the algorithms work. The ability to take huge amounts of data from people who think that they are acting independently but actually you can start to predict what they want by using the Law of Large Numbers, for example, Spotify predicts quite accurately your music and Amazon are excellent at predicting products that you also need. The more information you give to AI the better it will get.

A good example of a company who looks outside of the data for their competitive advantage is Patagonia. Patagonia have a genuine interest in their customers and what their customers want, what inspires them and what's affecting their lives. These things are becoming more and more of a competitive advantage, and I love Patagonia’s value-based business model and the fact they say “No!” to Black Friday. 

The LEGO analogy

One of my American friend’s sent me this image yesterday with the message, “Dear Stephen, You are the only person I know that has the knowledge and experience to explain this analogy to an organisation.”
I was humbled and also aware that there are many others who also have this ability. Contact me via e-mail for an explanation.

---

Why measurement is hard

One of the first steps in solving a problem — data science or otherwise — is determining the right measure to gauge success. When we want to objectively find the best solution, we should recall the concept of Goodhart’s Law and realise that rather than using a single number, the best assessment is usually a set of measurements. By choosing multiple metrics, we can design a solution without the unintended consequences that occur when optimising for a narrow objective. Goodhart’s Law states: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimise for that objective regardless of the consequences. This leads to problems when other equally important aspects of a situation are neglected.

When using technology, people tend not to listen to their eyes and ears. Instead, a person is only making a judgement about a person through the distilled information. I have recently completed a digital marketing course and know now how to “game algorithms”. This has now convinced more than ever that in person meetings are a better gauge of a person’s integrity compared to looking at their social media feeds. When meeting face-to-face we can pick on mannerisms, for example, how the person speaks, how they appear, how they engage with their surroundings and a whole host of tangible and intangible behaviours.

Life is a balancing act, and social media has opened the world to the tensions of two forces: the ones measuring and the ones behaving. I think Goodhart’s Law is one of those paradoxes not to be solved but to be balanced. Contact me via e-mail when you are ready for an external perspective on your organisation’s measuring tools.

Communication can unite us

We all have something to offer but we don’t always have the ability to release it and if it doesn't get out then it may eat you up on the inside. Nobody can live life and not gather experience, and out of those experiences come conclusions and to share those conclusions is to create growth. I have been told throughout my life that the more you give away the more you will receive, this is also the fundamental value of most religions.

Nowadays we have the ability to go into silos of our choice and interact with people who think like us, dress like us and feel like us. You can get your news delivered to you in your flavour or colour, and there’s nothing wrong with that. I think the only problem is when you think that your news is absolute and because we have 24 hours news cycles, and we also have technology that collects our behavioural data and via algorithms directly associates you with your interests. This in turn starts pushing information to you that further supports whatever you were searching for. And this provides a false reality, a reality where you think the world thinks like you.

“Music is the most powerful form of communication in the world. It brings us all together. Even religion separates us, but a hit record unites us across religious beliefs, race, politics. - Sean Combs ”

As we become more tribalistic, we also become more animalistic! Think about how many things have been created to divide us and how few things that has been created to unite us. I think we have to keep speaking to each other, even if we have different opinions, and stop living behind the walls of the labels we put on ourselves.

---

Always try to change things for the better

You can use data, data and more data if you are serving people. Are you aware that every single click you make, everywhere you go is now recorded in a database? And more than that, there is software that allows the marketer to watch while you are shopping, watch you while you rage click on a button. You can get a report that tells you that 28% of the visitors pressed on this button first, we are watching everything. The direct marketer is busy moving tiny little pieces around to try to get a 3% boost, but the intuitive marketer can see how people are interacting and discover what they are seeking. We are stuck in the same circle to see which parts work and which parts don’t.


The purpose of marketing is this generous act of helping people figure out their problems and solving them. The only way to this is to keep doing it and the internet has made it cheaper, faster and easier to do than ever before. The big takeaway is just do it, get the feedback from those people - see how they behave, see how they buy, whether they buy it or whether they don’t. Listen to what they tell you, listen to the questions they ask and the objections they may have, learn from that and do it better the next time and never stop. We don’t have the power to do things to people against their will, contact me via e-mail to arrange a meeting about your organisations use of data.

---

Combine feelings with facts

Your gut and your heart are connected to your brain via the vagus nervous system and 95% of serotonin is produced in the gut. Serotonin is the hormone that gives instructions to the body, for example, when to be happy, positive and in a good mood. The gut-brain axis (GBA) consists of bidirectional communication between the central and the enteric nervous system, linking emotional and cognitive centers of the brain with peripheral intestinal functions. There are both good and bad bacteria in the gut because the gut is connected to the brain and 95% of the instructions for movement is produced inside the gut.


When it comes to decision-making, knowledge is power. How do you feel about knowledge that comes from an unconventional source? Gut reactions can convey valuable information about potential choices and in a fraction of the time it takes to consciously analyse your options. I think it’s best to combine feelings with facts. Professor Julian Birkinshaw (London Business School) agrees that successful organisations must be equally comfortable applying gut instinct with careful research. The brain and gut may make an odd couple, contact me via e-mail to arrange a meeting about how to maximise your strengths and shore up your weaknesses.

---

Patterns of behaviour

Over the past 20 years or so, the thinking within our culture is that the richer you are, the smarter you are. Therefore, when you want to make a comfortable living, you think that I you need to make more and more money. Let’s change the system, lets try to change the reason why people think this way - educate people, train them to understand that finance is just one parameter of happiness.

Systems thinking is a holistic approach to analysis that focuses on the way that a system's constituent parts interrelate and how systems work over time and within the context of larger systems. It’s important to remember that the term “systems thinking” can mean different things to different people. The discipline of systems thinking is more than just a collection of tools and methods – it’s also an underlying philosophy. Contact me via e-mail as I would really like to look at your:
a) PURPOSE - Why do these systems exist?
b) ELEMENTS - the interconnection between the different elements, and
c) FLOW - how things going out of your system.

---

Patterns of behaviour

Demographics are the statistical data of a population, e.g. age, income, education, ethnicity, gender, employment status, etc. I think that this is old school, and it can be seen as a very useful insight into the culture of the people or a certain population that exists in a certain region. Back in the “pre-internet” days you could buy all this information from a mail order company to create marketing strategy as well as a marketing plan for your business. Psychographics focuses on collecting and analyzing the characteristics of an audience that are slightly more intangible, for example, values, habits, attitudes, interests, emotions, personality, lifestyle, opinions and preferences.



When data collection is being done properly, people are happy to have it done, for example, Netflix, Spotify and YouTube recommendations. This is because it is being done for them, not to them. With Facebook algorithms and Google analytics we can say: “This is for people who like that and this is for people who believe this.” It doesn’t matter about your skin colour or income, it’s all about what is your inner narrative. In every postal area there are people from almost every psycho-graphical perception and what we have to do as a brand marketer is say: “This is for you and it’s not for you.” Contact me via e-mail for an evaluation of your brand marketing strategy.

---

Throwback Thursday

I think that it’s important to look back in order to understand the present. Alvin Toffler’s prophetic 1970 book, “Future Shock” predicted how people and institutions of the late 20th century would contend with the immense strains and soaring opportunities of accelerating change. In the book Toffler highlights that you can't run the society on data and computers alone. I agree and think that society needs all kinds of skills which are not just cognitive, we also need skills that are emotional and affectionate.

Toffler’s predictions about the consequences to culture, the family, government and the economy were remarkably accurate. He foresaw the development of cloning, the popularity and influence of personal computers and the invention of the internet and cable television.

““You have got to think about big things while you are doing small things, so that all the small things go in the right direction.” - Alvin Toffler”

---

Ordering a pizza in 2022

This morning one of my friends sent me the below conversation on Facebook. I initially laughed and then I thought welcome to the future…


CALLER: Is this Pizza Hut?

GOOGLE: No sir, it's Google Pizza.

CALLER: I must have dialled the wrong number, sorry.

GOOGLE: No sir, Google bought Pizza Hut last month.

CALLER: OK. I would like to order a pizza.

GOOGLE: Do you want your usual, sir?

CALLER: My usual? You know me?

GOOGLE: According to our caller ID data sheet, the last 12 times you called you ordered an extra-large pizza with three cheeses, sausage, pepperoni, mushrooms and meatballs on a thick crust.

CALLER: Super! That’s what I’ll have.

GOOGLE: May I suggest that this time you order a pizza with ricotta, arugula, sun-dried tomatoes and olives on a whole wheat gluten-free thin crust?

CALLER: What? I don’t want a vegetarian pizza!

GOOGLE: Your cholesterol is not good, sir.

CALLER: How the hell do you know that?

GOOGLE: Well, we cross-referenced your home phone number with your medical records. We have the result of your blood tests for the last 7 years.

CALLER: Okay, but I do not want your rotten vegetarian pizza! I already take medication for my cholesterol.

GOOGLE: Excuse me sir, but you have not taken your medication regularly. According to our database, you purchased only a box of 30 cholesterol tablets once at Lloyds Pharmacy, 4 months ago.

CALLER: I bought more from another Pharmacy.

GOOGLE: That doesn’t show on your credit card statement.

CALLER: I paid in cash.

GOOGLE: But you did not withdraw enough cash according to your bank statement.

CALLER: I have other sources of cash.

GOOGLE: That doesn’t show on your latest tax returns, unless you bought them using an undeclared income source, which is against the law!

CALLER: WHAT THE HELL!

GOOGLE: I'm sorry sir, we use such information only with the sole intention of helping you.

CALLER: Enough already! I'm sick to death of Google, Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp and all the others. I'm going to an island without the internet, TV, where there is no phone service and no one to watch me or spy on me.

GOOGLE: I understand sir, but you need to renew your passport first. It expired 6 weeks ago...

A Little About The Way I Think

1) I spend my time listening and making others feel special rather than telling them how great I am.

2) I understand that relationships are built on trust, and trust takes time to develop.

3) I think that the best way to differentiate is to be honest, caring and hardworking.

4) I usually identify areas of shared interest and create opportunities for everyone to be a winner.

5) I provide encouragement, show concern, listen with interest and instill a strong set of values.

6) I always treat my clients with dignity and respect.

---

Jack Ma at World Economic Forum (video)

"We really need to pay attention to people who are 30 years old, to the next 30 years and to companies that have less than 30 employees. What are you most looking forward to and most scared off in the next 30 years?" Watch the full interview here

---

Are You Making Your Customers Happy?

Whilst paying attention to what's going on around me and contemplating what is my interpretation of the world? I am not just looking at what offer people are putting out there in terms of content and ideas, but being aware of a problem that needs to be solved. What stops all of us from being observant? Is it the fear of failure or just self-doubt? One should not wait for proof before overcoming fear, one should try anyway!

It is good to ask customers questions but it is better to observe them in action. A more lateral approach to gain insights from customers is to study in detail how they use your type of product or service and to observe what practical problems they have. Data rather than intuition should be the core background to make decisions, so the big question should be, "How to use data to drive better personalisation?" As we look to create a more personalised/customised experience and products, we must ensure that it can scale.

“Data has a clear role to play in developing a superior customer experience— and companies have access to more information on their customers than ever before. Indeed, they are seeing an exponential increase in customer-related data, driven largely by social media, mobile, and e-commerce. But these expanding troves of customer information alone are clearly not driving customer experience improvements—let alone innovation—in the vast majority of organisations.” - Harvard Business Review Analytic Services

The smarter we can analyse data (both quantitative and qualitative) the better we will be at leaving customers feeling wanted, respected and appreciated at every stage of the interaction. Moving from segmenting customers to treating them as individuals is possible by aggregating multiple data sources, being responsive to the previous behaviour of customers and acting in the moment at the right time. We all know customer expectations have accelerated exponentially and this is not slowing down. To compete for the heart and minds of the customer, businesses need to be able to engage meaningfully with people in the channels where they are, not where you want them to be.

---